ATs
61.90%
Wins 61.66%, ties 0.47%
KQo
38.10%
Wins 37.87%, ties 0.47%
ATs against KQo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 61.658 | 0.474 | 37.868 | 61.895 |
| KQo | 37.868 | 0.474 | 61.658 | 38.105 |
We compare a suited hand with an offsuit hand. With no overlap in ranks, every card that pairs one hand is a card that does not pair the other.
That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. Split pots make up 0.47% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
ATs ranks number 13 of 169 starting hands, and KQo ranks number 23, by equity against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 50,677,000 | 390,000 | 31,124,000 |
| KQo | 31,124,000 | 390,000 | 50,677,000 |
48 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 1.624 | 1.622 | 2.641 | 0.616 |
| KQo | 0.616 | 2.641 | 1.622 | 1.624 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
ATs prefers low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), where it holds 77.13%, and likes rainbow flops topped by a ten or better least, where it holds 54.81%. ATs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | KQo wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.260 | 54.754 | 0.113 | 45.133 | 54.811 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.770 | 76.635 | 0.998 | 22.367 | 77.134 |
| Two-tone | 46.667 | 61.517 | 0.305 | 38.178 | 61.669 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 56.741 | 2.390 | 40.869 | 57.936 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 66.127 | 0.604 | 33.269 | 66.429 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts ATs from 64.60% by -2.70 points and KQo from 61.46% by -23.36 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 61.895 | 64.602 | -2.707 | 0.95810 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 54.811 | 64.602 | -9.791 | 0.84844 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 77.134 | 64.602 | +12.532 | 1.19399 |
| ATs, two-tone | 61.669 | 64.602 | -2.933 | 0.95460 |
| ATs, monotone | 57.936 | 64.602 | -6.666 | 0.89681 |
| ATs, paired | 66.429 | 64.602 | +1.827 | 1.02828 |
| KQo, all flops | 38.105 | 61.456 | -23.351 | 0.62004 |
| KQo, rainbow, ten or higher | 45.189 | 61.456 | -16.267 | 0.73531 |
| KQo, rainbow, nine or lower | 22.866 | 61.456 | -38.590 | 0.37207 |
| KQo, two-tone | 38.331 | 61.456 | -23.125 | 0.62371 |
| KQo, monotone | 42.064 | 61.456 | -19.392 | 0.68446 |
| KQo, paired | 33.571 | 61.456 | -27.885 | 0.54626 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Of the deals of this matchup, 24 share a suit (ATs at 61.60%) and 24 do not (62.19%). ATs does better with no shared suit, by 0.59 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | KQo wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 24 | 50.00 | 61.346 | 0.514 | 38.140 | 61.603 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 50.00 | 61.970 | 0.434 | 37.596 | 62.187 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 48 specific-card matchups (0.0030% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 96 once you count the seats both ways (0.0059%).
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, ATs' average share is $123.80 (a gain of $23.80) and KQo's is $76.20 (a loss of $23.80).
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 616 wins for ATs, 379 for KQo and 5 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get KQo with 38.10% against ATs with 61.90%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
Try AsTs against KhQd in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 48 specific ATs against KQo deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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