JTs vs 22: preflop equity

In equity, JTs against 22 stands at 53.84% to 46.16%, a gap of 7.68 points.

JTs

53.84%

Wins 53.13%, ties 1.43%

22

46.16%

Wins 45.44%, ties 1.43%

Equity counts a tie as half a win. Exact over every board.

JTs against 22: the numbers

Exact preflop results for JTs against 22, in percent
HandWinsTiesLosesEquity
JTs53.1251.42745.44853.838
2245.4481.42753.12546.162

Here a suited hand (JTs) meets a pocket pair (22). A pair against two higher cards is the classic race: the pair is usually a small favorite or close to even, and each overcard that pairs is a way to take the lead.

With only 7.68 points between them, the board decides this matchup far more than the cards in hand. Ties are part of the picture: 1.43% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.

In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, JTs is number 45 and 22 is number 87.

Boards behind the percentages: 41,095,296 counted in all
HandBoards won, aboutBoards tied, aboutBoards lost, about
JTs21,832,000586,00018,677,000
2218,677,000586,00021,832,000

Exact total: 24 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.

JTs against 22 read as odds
HandEquity as odds (to 1)Wins one deal inLoses one deal inPot odds needed to call (to 1)
JTs1.1661.8822.2000.857
220.8572.2001.8821.166

The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.

Who is ahead on which flops

Split by what the flop looks like, JTs peaks at 58.62% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and bottoms out at 32.08% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). Watch for low rainbow flops (nine high or lower): on those flops 22 holds the better equity.

JTs against 22 by flop texture, in percent
FlopShare of flopsJTs winsTies22 winsJTs equity
Rainbow, ten or higher24.59558.2480.73841.01458.617
Rainbow, nine or lower6.31431.6120.93467.45432.079
Two-tone46.54554.5750.73844.68754.944
Monotone5.21250.9654.04544.99052.988
Paired17.33450.4453.64845.90752.269

Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.

Compared with a random hand

Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts JTs from 57.53% by -3.69 points and 22 from 50.33% by -4.17 points.

JTs and 22 here compared with each against a random hand, in percent
CaseEquity hereAgainst a random handChange in pointsTimes the random-hand equity
JTs, all flops53.83857.528-3.6900.93586
JTs, rainbow, ten or higher58.61757.528+1.0891.01893
JTs, rainbow, nine or lower32.07957.528-25.4490.55762
JTs, two-tone54.94457.528-2.5840.95508
JTs, monotone52.98857.528-4.5400.92108
JTs, paired52.26957.528-5.2590.90858
22, all flops46.16250.334-4.1720.91711
22, rainbow, ten or higher41.38350.334-8.9510.82217
22, rainbow, nine or lower67.92150.334+17.5871.34941
22, two-tone45.05650.334-5.2780.89514
22, monotone47.01250.334-3.3220.93400
22, paired47.73150.334-2.6030.94829

Does a shared suit matter?

The suit split reads 53.70% for JTs with a shared suit and 53.98% without one. JTs does better with no shared suit, by 0.28 points.

JTs against 22 by suit overlap, in percent
DealsSpecific dealsShare of dealsJTs winsTies22 winsJTs equity
Share a suit1250.0052.9741.44745.57953.697
No shared suit1250.0053.2761.40745.31753.979

How often this matchup comes up

Exactly 24 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0015% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 48, or 0.0030%.

A worked example

With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $107.68 for JTs and $92.32 for 22; the first side gains $7.68 per all-in and the second gives up $7.68.

Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 531 for JTs, 455 for 22 and 14 tied.

The same matchup from the other side

One page covers both views. From 22's side the equity is 46.16%, and from JTs' side it is 53.84%.

JsTs against 2h2d is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.

How this was computed

This is an exact count with no sampling. For the 24 ways to deal one JTs and one 22 without reusing a card, grouped by suit pattern, every one of the 1,712,304 possible boards is dealt and both seven-card hands are compared. A tie counts as half a win in the equity column, and each board is counted once under each of its ten three-card flops.

Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.

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