QTo
49.32%
Wins 48.93%, ties 0.79%
44
50.68%
Wins 50.28%, ties 0.79%
QTo against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTo | 48.928 | 0.790 | 50.282 | 49.323 |
| 44 | 50.282 | 0.790 | 48.928 | 50.677 |
We compare an offsuit hand with a pocket pair. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
This is close to even money, with 44 a little ahead. Split pots make up 0.79% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, QTo is number 47 and 44 is number 48.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| QTo | 60,321,000 | 974,000 | 61,991,000 |
| 44 | 61,991,000 | 974,000 | 60,321,000 |
The total is exact: 72 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTo | 0.973 | 2.044 | 1.989 | 1.027 |
| 44 | 1.027 | 1.989 | 2.044 | 0.973 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
If you know the kind of flop that came, the numbers shift: 44 holds 76.03% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and 43.74% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. The lead reverses on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better and monotone flops: there QTo is the favorite even though 44 is ahead overall.
| Flop | Share of flops | QTo wins | Ties | 44 wins | QTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.717 | 56.049 | 0.426 | 43.525 | 56.262 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 23.619 | 0.710 | 75.671 | 23.974 |
| Two-tone | 46.485 | 49.661 | 0.471 | 49.868 | 49.896 |
| Monotone | 5.151 | 50.586 | 2.136 | 47.278 | 51.654 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 45.537 | 1.794 | 52.669 | 46.434 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, QTo changes by -7.97 points (baseline 57.29%) and 44 by -6.34 points (baseline 57.02%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTo, all flops | 49.323 | 57.291 | -7.968 | 0.86092 |
| QTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 56.262 | 57.291 | -1.029 | 0.98204 |
| QTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 23.974 | 57.291 | -33.317 | 0.41846 |
| QTo, two-tone | 49.896 | 57.291 | -7.395 | 0.87092 |
| QTo, monotone | 51.654 | 57.291 | -5.637 | 0.90161 |
| QTo, paired | 46.434 | 57.291 | -10.857 | 0.81049 |
| 44, all flops | 50.677 | 57.023 | -6.346 | 0.88871 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 43.738 | 57.023 | -13.285 | 0.76702 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 76.026 | 57.023 | +19.003 | 1.33325 |
| 44, two-tone | 50.104 | 57.023 | -6.919 | 0.87866 |
| 44, monotone | 48.346 | 57.023 | -8.677 | 0.84783 |
| 44, paired | 53.566 | 57.023 | -3.457 | 0.93938 |
Does a shared suit matter?
When the hands share a suit, 44 holds 50.59%; when they do not, it holds 51.12%. 44 does better with no shared suit, by 0.53 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | QTo wins | Ties | 44 wins | QTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 60 | 83.33 | 49.011 | 0.803 | 50.186 | 49.413 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 16.67 | 48.516 | 0.723 | 50.761 | 48.877 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0089% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 144 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Take a $200 pot built from $100 each. 44's equity of 50.68% is worth $101.36, a $1.36 edge, and QTo's 49.32% is worth $98.64, which is $1.36 under its stake.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 503 outright wins for 44, 489 for QTo, and 8 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
Swap the hands and you get 44 with 50.68% against QTo with 49.32%. We keep one page per matchup, with the better-ranked hand first.
Keep exploring
QsTh against 4d4c is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
Method: exact enumeration. The 72 specific deals are grouped by suit pattern, each is run against all 1,712,304 boards, and both seven-card hands are scored. Equity adds half of every tie, and flop textures are tallied over the ten flops inside each board.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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