QTo
68.12%
Wins 66.08%, ties 4.07%
T9s
31.88%
Wins 29.85%, ties 4.07%
QTo against T9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTo | 66.084 | 4.067 | 29.849 | 68.117 |
| T9s | 29.849 | 4.067 | 66.084 | 31.883 |
We compare an offsuit hand with a suited hand. Because the hands share one rank, the one with the higher kicker is ahead when that rank pairs and the other hand is mostly drawing.
QTo is the clear favorite, though T9s gets there on roughly one board in 3. Ties are 4.07% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
In the ranking of all 169 starting hands, QTo is number 47 and T9s is number 64.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| QTo | 40,736,000 | 2,507,000 | 18,400,000 |
| T9s | 18,400,000 | 2,507,000 | 40,736,000 |
The board total is exact, 36 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTo | 2.136 | 1.513 | 3.350 | 0.468 |
| T9s | 0.468 | 3.350 | 1.513 | 2.136 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
QTo prefers rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, where it holds 73.47%, and likes low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) least, where it holds 57.31%. QTo stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | QTo wins | Ties | T9s wins | QTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.905 | 71.542 | 3.852 | 24.606 | 73.468 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 56.159 | 2.293 | 41.548 | 57.306 |
| Two-tone | 46.527 | 64.788 | 3.317 | 31.895 | 66.447 |
| Monotone | 5.192 | 61.731 | 4.594 | 33.675 | 64.028 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 67.368 | 6.942 | 25.690 | 70.839 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, QTo changes by +10.83 points (baseline 57.29%) and T9s by -22.15 points (baseline 54.03%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTo, all flops | 68.117 | 57.291 | +10.826 | 1.18897 |
| QTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 73.468 | 57.291 | +16.177 | 1.28237 |
| QTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 57.306 | 57.291 | +0.015 | 1.00026 |
| QTo, two-tone | 66.447 | 57.291 | +9.156 | 1.15982 |
| QTo, monotone | 64.028 | 57.291 | +6.737 | 1.11759 |
| QTo, paired | 70.839 | 57.291 | +13.548 | 1.23648 |
| T9s, all flops | 31.883 | 54.028 | -22.145 | 0.59012 |
| T9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 26.532 | 54.028 | -27.496 | 0.49108 |
| T9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 42.694 | 54.028 | -11.334 | 0.79022 |
| T9s, two-tone | 33.553 | 54.028 | -20.475 | 0.62103 |
| T9s, monotone | 35.972 | 54.028 | -18.056 | 0.66580 |
| T9s, paired | 29.161 | 54.028 | -24.867 | 0.53974 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common QTo has 69.10% equity, and with none in common it has 67.63%. QTo does better with a shared suit, by 1.47 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | QTo wins | Ties | T9s wins | QTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 33.33 | 67.008 | 4.180 | 28.812 | 69.098 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 66.67 | 65.621 | 4.011 | 30.368 | 67.627 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0044% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 72 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, QTo's average share is $136.24 (a gain of $36.24) and T9s' is $63.76 (a loss of $36.24).
A thousand deals look like this: QTo takes 661, T9s takes 298, 41 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: T9s against QTo is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so T9s holds 31.88% and QTo holds 68.12%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
Try QsTh against Td9d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 36 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session