TT
80.42%
Wins 80.19%, ties 0.45%
86s
19.58%
Wins 19.36%, ties 0.45%
TT against 86s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT | 80.192 | 0.452 | 19.356 | 80.418 |
| 86s | 19.356 | 0.452 | 80.192 | 19.582 |
TT and 86s are a pocket pair and a suited hand, in that order. Here a pair faces two cards that are both smaller, so the other hand needs to pair up and still be behind.
TT is a big favorite here before anyone sees a flop. 0.45% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
By strength against a random hand, TT holds place 5 of 169 and 86s holds place 110.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| TT | 32,955,000 | 186,000 | 7,954,000 |
| 86s | 7,954,000 | 186,000 | 32,955,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT | 4.107 | 1.247 | 5.166 | 0.244 |
| 86s | 0.244 | 5.166 | 1.247 | 4.107 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. TT does best on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better, at 85.67%, and worst on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 68.57%. TT stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | TT wins | Ties | 86s wins | TT equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 85.553 | 0.225 | 14.222 | 85.666 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 68.319 | 0.501 | 31.180 | 68.569 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 78.456 | 0.267 | 21.277 | 78.589 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 73.558 | 2.384 | 24.058 | 74.750 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 83.565 | 0.674 | 15.761 | 83.902 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, TT changes by +5.41 points (baseline 75.01%) and 86s by -26.66 points (baseline 46.24%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TT, all flops | 80.418 | 75.012 | +5.406 | 1.07207 |
| TT, rainbow, ten or higher | 85.666 | 75.012 | +10.654 | 1.14203 |
| TT, rainbow, nine or lower | 68.569 | 75.012 | -6.443 | 0.91411 |
| TT, two-tone | 78.589 | 75.012 | +3.577 | 1.04769 |
| TT, monotone | 74.750 | 75.012 | -0.262 | 0.99651 |
| TT, paired | 83.902 | 75.012 | +8.890 | 1.11851 |
| 86s, all flops | 19.582 | 46.243 | -26.661 | 0.42346 |
| 86s, rainbow, ten or higher | 14.334 | 46.243 | -31.909 | 0.30997 |
| 86s, rainbow, nine or lower | 31.431 | 46.243 | -14.812 | 0.67969 |
| 86s, two-tone | 21.411 | 46.243 | -24.832 | 0.46301 |
| 86s, monotone | 25.250 | 46.243 | -20.993 | 0.54603 |
| 86s, paired | 16.098 | 46.243 | -30.145 | 0.34812 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common TT has 80.99% equity, and with none in common it has 79.84%. TT does better with a shared suit, by 1.15 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | TT wins | Ties | 86s wins | TT equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 80.745 | 0.495 | 18.760 | 80.993 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 79.639 | 0.409 | 19.952 | 79.843 |
How often this matchup comes up
How often does it happen? 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered deals (0.0015%) are TT against 86s, and 48 (0.0030%) if either hand may sit in either seat.
A worked example
With $100 from each side, the $200 pot is split on average as $160.84 for TT and $39.16 for 86s; the first side gains $60.84 per all-in and the second gives up $60.84.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 802 outright wins for TT, 194 for 86s, and 4 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
86s against TT adds nothing new: it is 19.58% for 86s and 80.42% for TT, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
Try TsTh against 8d6d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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