Equity a call needs
40.00%
against a 2x-pot bet
- Pot oddsfor every 1 you call1.5 : 1
- Bet on a $100 pottwice the pot$200
- Pot after your callyou put in $200$500
The price of a 2x-pot bet
This is a steep price, and the turn makes it harder to meet, because only one card is left to come.
e = f / (1 + 2f)f = 2e = 2 / (1 + 2 x 2) = 40.00%Pot odds = (1 + 2) / 2 = 1.5 : 1
Put 1.5 : 1 next to 40.00% and you have one price in two forms; the call is right when your equity beats it.
A $100 pot facing a 2x-pot bet
Picture a $100 pot. A bet of $200 comes in, so $300 is on the table and the decision is yours.
- Pot before the bet$100
- Opponent bets$200
- You call$200
- Pot after your call$500
- You risk$200
- You can win$300
- Equity needed40.00%
The final pot of $500 is the number to divide by. $200 over $500 is 40.00%.
Which draws can call a 2x-pot bet
Eight draws, one price. The outs count sets your chance, and 40.00% sets the bar every row must clear.
You can continue from the flop with 2 of the 8 draws, and a flush draw with a gutshot is the first on the list that qualifies.
On the turn none of the 8 draws reaches 40.00%; even a flush draw with an open-ended straight draw, at 15 outs, hits 32.61%.
| Draw | Outs | Flop: hit by the river | Flop margin | Flop verdict | Turn: hit on the river | Turn margin | Turn verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A pocket pair that wants a set | 2 | 8.42% | -31.58 points | Fold | 4.35% | -35.65 points | Fold |
| One overcard to top pair | 3 | 12.49% | -27.51 points | Fold | 6.52% | -33.48 points | Fold |
| A gutshot straight draw | 4 | 16.47% | -23.53 points | Fold | 8.70% | -31.30 points | Fold |
| Two overcards | 6 | 24.14% | -15.86 points | Fold | 13.04% | -26.96 points | Fold |
| An open-ended straight draw | 8 | 31.45% | -8.55 points | Fold | 17.39% | -22.61 points | Fold |
| A flush draw | 9 | 34.97% | -5.03 points | Fold | 19.57% | -20.43 points | Fold |
| A flush draw with a gutshot | 12 | 44.96% | +4.96 points | Call | 26.09% | -13.91 points | Fold |
| A flush draw with an open-ended straight draw | 15 | 54.12% | +14.12 points | Call | 32.61% | -7.39 points | Fold |
Implied odds against a 2x-pot bet
With implied odds, the pot you win is not just $500 but $500 plus whatever you collect later, W. The price turns into $200 / ($500 + W).
The price drops in steps: 40.00% with nothing extra, 36.36% with $50, and 20.00% with $500.
With 19.57% on the turn, a flush draw is behind 40.00%; a further $522.22 from later bets would level it.
Against a player who bets big whenever you hit, implied odds are real. Against one who folds, they are close to zero.
A 2x-pot bet leaves little room to be wrong about your outs. If a card makes you second best, you can lose more than $200 on later streets.
| Future winnings W | Pot after call plus W | Equity needed | Change from the plain price | Flush draw margin from the flop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | $500 | 40.00% | 0.00 points | -5.03 points |
| $50 | $550 | 36.36% | -3.64 points | -1.40 points |
| $100 | $600 | 33.33% | -6.67 points | +1.63 points |
| $250 | $750 | 26.67% | -13.33 points | +8.30 points |
| $500 | $1,000 | 20.00% | -20.00 points | +14.97 points |
2x-pot next to the other sizes
The next smaller size is 1.5x-pot, at 37.50%. Moving from there to 2x-pot adds 2.50 points to the price.
The 3x-pot bet is the neighbor above. It needs 42.86%, so it is 2.86 points steeper than this size.
- Pot odds facing a 1.5x-pot bet: Needs 37.50%, 2.50 points less.
- Pot odds facing a 3x-pot bet: Needs 42.86%, 2.86 points more.
The outs that justify a call
Count your outs on the flop. With 11 outs you get 41.72%, enough for 40.00%; with fewer, you fall to 38.39% or less.
On the turn the line moves up to 19 outs, good for 41.30% against 40.00%. One fewer reaches only 39.13%.
- 11 outs on the flop: 41.72% by the river against 40.00%.
- 19 outs on the turn: 41.30% on the river against 40.00%.
How this is computed
Every number on this page follows from one input, a bet of twice the pot into $100. From it the page computes the price, 40.00%, and then checks eight draws against that price.
Let f be the bet as a share of the pot. Calling adds f to a pot that already holds 1 + f, so the final pot is 1 + 2f and the price is f / (1 + 2f) = 40.00% at f = 2.
Assumed throughout: a full call, no more betting, the pot won whole when you hit, and a fair deal from 47 unseen cards on the flop or 46 on the turn.
Method: the closed form f / (1 + 2f) computed by the GeorgeLiPoker math library, with draw chances counted from the unseen cards.
Updated
Questions
What equity do you need to call a 2x-pot bet?
40.00% is the number. Your $200 call lifts the pot to $500, so you are buying 40.00% of it. Compare your chance of winning with 40.00% and call when you are above it.
How many outs do you need against a 2x-pot bet?
The answer for the flop is 11 outs, good for 41.72% by the river against 40.00%. On the turn you need 19 outs. Remember to subtract outs that a better hand also wants.
How much do implied odds help against a 2x-pot bet?
Implied odds turn 40.00% into 20.00% when you can win $500 later. Reverse implied odds do the opposite, so keep a little margin when your outs could lose to a better hand.
Can you call a 2x-pot bet with a flush draw?
Use 9 outs for the draw. On the flop its chance to hit by the river is 34.97%, which is below 40.00%, so it is a fold. On the turn the chance is 19.57%, which is below 40.00%, so it is a fold. A flush that loses to a bigger flush is a risk, so keep a margin.
Related pages
Check your own hands against the numbers
Bring a hand you played and we will work through the price, the chance to hit and the decision together.
Book a session