Equity a call needs
44.44%
against a 4x-pot bet
- Pot oddsfor every 1 you call1.25 : 1
- Bet on a $100 potfour times the pot$400
- Pot after your callyou put in $400$900
The price of a 4x-pot bet
With 44.44% to reach, the bet is large next to the pot, and the call needs a hand that wins about 4 times in 10.
e = f / (1 + 2f)f = 4e = 4 / (1 + 2 x 4) = 44.44%Pot odds = (1 + 4) / 4 = 1.25 : 1
Turn the percent into odds and you get 1.25 : 1. The bigger the first number, the cheaper the call.
A $100 pot facing a 4x-pot bet
Start with $100 in the pot. Your opponent bets $400, which is four times the pot, and the pot grows to $500.
- Pot before the bet$100
- Opponent bets$400
- You call$400
- Pot after your call$900
- You risk$400
- You can win$500
- Equity needed44.44%
Add your $400 and the pot reaches $900. The price of 44.44% is simply your call as a share of that total.
Which draws can call a 4x-pot bet
Below, the same 44.44% bar is held against common draws. A margin above zero means a call, and below zero means a fold.
Looking at the flop columns, you can call with 2 of these draws, beginning at a flush draw with a gutshot.
With one card to come, no row clears 44.44%. The strongest draw here, a flush draw with an open-ended straight draw, reaches 32.61%.
| Draw | Outs | Flop: hit by the river | Flop margin | Flop verdict | Turn: hit on the river | Turn margin | Turn verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A pocket pair that wants a set | 2 | 8.42% | -36.03 points | Fold | 4.35% | -40.10 points | Fold |
| One overcard to top pair | 3 | 12.49% | -31.96 points | Fold | 6.52% | -37.92 points | Fold |
| A gutshot straight draw | 4 | 16.47% | -27.98 points | Fold | 8.70% | -35.75 points | Fold |
| Two overcards | 6 | 24.14% | -20.30 points | Fold | 13.04% | -31.40 points | Fold |
| An open-ended straight draw | 8 | 31.45% | -12.99 points | Fold | 17.39% | -27.05 points | Fold |
| A flush draw | 9 | 34.97% | -9.48 points | Fold | 19.57% | -24.88 points | Fold |
| A flush draw with a gutshot | 12 | 44.96% | +0.51 points | Call | 26.09% | -18.36 points | Fold |
| A flush draw with an open-ended straight draw | 15 | 54.12% | +9.67 points | Call | 32.61% | -11.84 points | Fold |
Implied odds against a 4x-pot bet
Think of implied odds as a bigger pot at no extra cost: $900 plus W is what you play for, and $400 is still all you pay.
Future winnings of $500 would cut the price by 15.87 points, leaving 28.57% to find.
The turn flush draw reaches 19.57%. The $400 call works if you expect to win $1,144.44 beyond the $900 pot.
Strong draws that sit above 44.44% do not need implied odds at all. They are for the hands that fall a little short.
Add a margin for risk when your outs are shaky. A price of 44.44% on paper can become a worse one when you lose big pots after hitting.
| Future winnings W | Pot after call plus W | Equity needed | Change from the plain price | Flush draw margin from the flop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | $900 | 44.44% | 0.00 points | -9.48 points |
| $50 | $950 | 42.11% | -2.34 points | -7.14 points |
| $100 | $1,000 | 40.00% | -4.44 points | -5.03 points |
| $250 | $1,150 | 34.78% | -9.66 points | +0.19 points |
| $500 | $1,400 | 28.57% | -15.87 points | +6.40 points |
4x-pot next to the other sizes
The 3x-pot bet is the neighbor below. It needs 42.86%, so this size is 1.59 points steeper.
Nothing on the list is bigger than 4x-pot, so 44.44% is the steepest call you will find here.
- Pot odds facing a 3x-pot bet: Needs 42.86%, 1.59 points less.
The outs that justify a call
Two cards to come make the flop easier: 12 outs are enough to call a 4x-pot bet, with 44.96% to hit by the river.
Against a bet of four times the pot on the turn, the answer is more than 20 outs, because 20 outs give 43.48%, below 44.44%.
- 12 outs on the flop: 44.96% by the river against 44.44%.
How this is computed
Every number on this page follows from one input, a bet of four times the pot into $100. From it the page computes the price, 44.44%, and then checks eight draws against that price.
Equity needed is the call divided by the final pot. Here the final pot is the pot plus the bet plus your call, so e = f / (1 + 2f), and f = 4 gives 44.44%.
Assumed throughout: a full call, no more betting, the pot won whole when you hit, and a fair deal from 47 unseen cards on the flop or 46 on the turn.
Method: the closed form f / (1 + 2f) computed by the GeorgeLiPoker math library, with draw chances counted from the unseen cards.
Updated
Questions
What equity do you need to call a 4x-pot bet?
The break-even equity is 44.44%, written as pot odds of 1.25 : 1. You risk $400 and the pot after your call is $900. Win more than 44.44% of the time and the call gains; win less and it loses.
How many outs do you need against a 4x-pot bet?
On the flop, 12 outs is the minimum for a call here, at 44.96% by the river. On the turn you would need more than 20 outs, and no draw has that many. Outs that give a rival a better hand do not count in full, so adjust before deciding.
How much do implied odds help against a 4x-pot bet?
They lower the price. Expecting $500 more after you hit takes 15.87 points off the bar, leaving 28.57% instead of 44.44%. The effect shrinks fast when your opponent folds to your bets or when stacks are short.
Can you call a 4x-pot bet with a flush draw?
Look at each street. On the flop its chance to hit by the river is 34.97%, which is below 44.44%, so it is a fold. On the turn the chance is 19.57%, which is below 44.44%, so it is a fold. Hidden outs and deep stacks lean toward calling, and shared outs lean away.
Related pages
Check your own hands against the numbers
Bring a hand you played and we will work through the price, the chance to hit and the decision together.
Book a session