Equity a call needs
25.00%
against a half-pot bet
- Pot oddsfor every 1 you call3 : 1
- Bet on a $100 pothalf the pot$50
- Pot after your callyou put in $50$200
The price of a half-pot bet
The call costs $50 to win $150, a middle price of 25.00% that rewards counting before calling.
e = f / (1 + 2f)f = 0.5e = 0.5 / (1 + 2 x 0.5) = 25.00%Pot odds = (1 + 0.5) / 0.5 = 3 : 1
As a ratio the price is 3 : 1, since the $150 already in the middle is 3 times your $50 call.
A $100 pot facing a half-pot bet
Say the pot holds $100 and the bet is $50. After the bet the pot is $150, and you face a call of $50.
- Pot before the bet$100
- Opponent bets$50
- You call$50
- Pot after your call$200
- You risk$50
- You can win$150
- Equity needed25.00%
With your $50 in, the pot is $200. You are paying 25.00% of the pot for the right to see the next card.
Which draws can call a half-pot bet
Here are eight familiar draws, with their outs, set against a half-pot bet. The margin is your chance to hit minus 25.00%, in percentage points.
Counting rows rather than outs, 4 of the 8 draws beat 25.00% on the flop, and an open-ended straight draw is the weakest of them.
On the turn, 2 of the 8 draws clear 25.00%, and the smallest is a flush draw with a gutshot.
| Draw | Outs | Flop: hit by the river | Flop margin | Flop verdict | Turn: hit on the river | Turn margin | Turn verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A pocket pair that wants a set | 2 | 8.42% | -16.58 points | Fold | 4.35% | -20.65 points | Fold |
| One overcard to top pair | 3 | 12.49% | -12.51 points | Fold | 6.52% | -18.48 points | Fold |
| A gutshot straight draw | 4 | 16.47% | -8.53 points | Fold | 8.70% | -16.30 points | Fold |
| Two overcards | 6 | 24.14% | -0.86 points | Fold | 13.04% | -11.96 points | Fold |
| An open-ended straight draw | 8 | 31.45% | +6.45 points | Call | 17.39% | -7.61 points | Fold |
| A flush draw | 9 | 34.97% | +9.97 points | Call | 19.57% | -5.43 points | Fold |
| A flush draw with a gutshot | 12 | 44.96% | +19.96 points | Call | 26.09% | +1.09 points | Call |
| A flush draw with an open-ended straight draw | 15 | 54.12% | +29.12 points | Call | 32.61% | +7.61 points | Call |
Implied odds against a half-pot bet
The table shows the same call with future winnings W from $0 to $500. The call stays $50, and the pot after your call stays $200.
Future winnings of $500 would cut the price by 17.86 points, leaving 7.14% to find.
With 9 outs and one card to come you have 19.57%. To call a half-pot bet you would need to expect $55.56 more when the card arrives.
Be careful with obvious draws. If the board shows the flush and your opponent can fold, the extra money you hoped to win may never come.
Weak made hands face the opposite problem. When you call with a pair that is behind, more betting costs you extra, which pushes the true price above 25.00%.
| Future winnings W | Pot after call plus W | Equity needed | Change from the plain price | Flush draw margin from the flop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | $200 | 25.00% | 0.00 points | +9.97 points |
| $50 | $250 | 20.00% | -5.00 points | +14.97 points |
| $100 | $300 | 16.67% | -8.33 points | +18.30 points |
| $250 | $450 | 11.11% | -13.89 points | +23.86 points |
| $500 | $700 | 7.14% | -17.86 points | +27.82 points |
Half-pot next to the other sizes
A smaller two-fifths-pot bet asks for only 22.22%; that is 2.78 points less than the 25.00% here.
Going from half-pot (25.00%) up to two-thirds-pot (28.57%) raises the bar by 3.57 points.
- Pot odds facing a two-fifths-pot bet: Needs 22.22%, 2.78 points less.
- Pot odds facing a two-thirds-pot bet: Needs 28.57%, 3.57 points more.
The outs that justify a call
Break-even on the flop sits between 6 and 7 outs: 24.14% is too low and 27.84% is enough.
On the turn the line moves up to 12 outs, good for 26.09% against 25.00%. One fewer reaches only 23.91%.
- 7 outs on the flop: 27.84% by the river against 25.00%.
- 12 outs on the turn: 26.09% on the river against 25.00%.
These pages take the 25.00% price and test a draw from start to finish, with the margin spelled out.
- Flush draw on the flop against a half-pot bet: 9 outs, 34.97% to hit, against 25.00%.
How this is computed
The figures here start from a $100 pot and a bet of half the pot, which is $50. The page computes the price of the call, then sets common draws against it.
Equity needed is the call divided by the final pot. Here the final pot is the pot plus the bet plus your call, so e = f / (1 + 2f), and f = 0.5 gives 25.00%.
Hit chances count unseen cards, 47 after the flop and 46 after the turn, all equally likely. The call is for the full bet, no one bets again after it, and a hit takes the whole pot.
Method: the closed form f / (1 + 2f) computed by the GeorgeLiPoker math library, with draw chances counted from the unseen cards.
Updated
Questions
What equity do you need to call a half-pot bet?
The answer is 25.00%. For a $100 pot, a $50 bet and a $50 call, the pot reaches $200, and 25.00% is your share of the cost. Beat it and the call is worth making.
How many outs do you need against a half-pot bet?
Flop first: 7 outs give you 27.84% by the river, enough for 25.00%. On the turn you need 12 outs. If some outs also make a better hand for your opponent, shave the count before you compare.
How much do implied odds help against a half-pot bet?
A big stack behind changes the call. Adding $500 to the pot lowers the bar from 25.00% to 7.14%. A small stack behind changes it very little, so check the stacks before you count on implied odds.
Can you call a half-pot bet with a flush draw?
Check both streets. On the flop its chance to hit by the river is 34.97%, which is above 25.00%, so it is a call. On the turn the chance is 19.57%, which is below 25.00%, so it is a fold. Neither figure includes future winnings, which can tip a close spot.
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