Verdict
Call
12 outs, flop, half-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come44.96%
- Equity the call needs$50 into a pot of $20025.00%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+19.96 points
Chance against price
The price is 25.00% and your chance is 44.96%. You sit 19.96 points above the line, which is a wide gap, so you call.
The usual home for 12 outs is a flush draw with a gutshot. One card from the 47 unseen ones completes it 25.53% of the time.
A $100 pot, step by step
- Starting pot$100
- Size of the bet$50
- Your call$50
- Pot with your call in$200
- You can win on a hit$150
- Net loss when you miss$50
- Chance to hit by the river44.96%
- Expected value of calling+$39.92
- Equity needed to break even25.00%
- Unrounded margin+19.9584 points
- Break-even count of outs6.23 outs
- Outs above the price+5.77 outs
If you win the whole pot on a hit and lose your call otherwise, with no more betting, calling gains $39.92 on average. Hits add $67.44 on average and misses cost $27.52 on average, or +0.798 per dollar called.
Stated as odds, you are 1.22 : 1 against hitting and the call gets 3 : 1 from the pot.
One easy error is to use 33.33%, the bet over the pot before your call, as the price. The right price is 25.00%, and the mistaken margin would be +11.6250 points. The bet over the starting pot, 50.00%, would claim -5.0416 points.
Reverse implied odds and your margin
The call survives losing up to 5 outs. At 7 outs the chance is 27.84%, just enough for 25.00%.
If hitting means paying off a bigger hand later, the call survives a loss of $88.79. That is 1.78 times the $50 call.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 25.00% | +19.96 points | +$39.92 | Call |
| $10 | 26.32% | +18.64 points | +$35.42 | Call |
| $25 | 28.57% | +16.39 points | +$28.68 | Call |
| $50 | 33.33% | +11.63 points | +$17.44 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | -5.04 points | -$5.04 | Fold |
The next card against the whole runout
No conflict here: 44.96% for two cards and 25.53% for one both give a call against the 25.00% price, so you need not decide which view applies.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 44.96% | +19.9584 points | +$39.92 | Call |
| Next card only | 25.53% | +0.5319 points | +$1.06 | Call |
Neighbors of this draw
How fast does the margin move? About 3.15 points per out on the flop. The rows below keep the half-pot bet fixed and change only the outs.
Changing the bet, keeping the draw
The same 12 outs on the flop meet a different price at each bet size. The table runs from the smallest bet to the largest, and the row for this page is marked.
Your 44.96% chance tops every price in the table, so every bet size is a call: the largest price, 44.44%, is still below it.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +28.29 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +24.96 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +22.74 points | Call |
| half-pot, this page | 25.00% | +19.96 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +16.39 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +14.96 points | Call |
| pot-size | 33.33% | +11.63 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +9.24 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +7.46 points | Call |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | +4.96 points | Call |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | +2.10 points | Call |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | +0.51 points | Call |
How this is computed
The chance rests on counting, not on a rule of thumb. Blank pairs: 595 out of 1,081; hit chance: 44.96%.
These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $50 of a $200 pot (25.00%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 47 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Are 12 outs on the flop worth a call against a bet of half the pot?
Your chance, 44.96%, set against the 25.00% price gives +19.96 points and a call. With a $100 pot, a $50 call and no more betting, the average value of the call is +$39.92.
What is the minimum number of outs for a half-pot bet on the flop?
The threshold is 7 outs. It gives 27.84%, clearing 25.00%, whereas 6 gives only 24.14%. Holding 12 puts you 5 above it, with a chance of 44.96%.
One card or two: which number belongs next to the 25.00% price?
Pick the number that matches the street plan: 44.96% for seeing both cards for one bet, 25.53% for paying card by card. Both face 25.00%, and the verdict is call either way.
Related pages
Check your own hands against the numbers
Bring a hand you played and we will work through the price, the chance to hit and the decision together.
Book a session