Verdict
Call
17 outs, flop, half-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come59.76%
- Equity the call needs$50 into a pot of $20025.00%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+34.76 points
Reading the verdict
The price is 25.00% and your chance is 59.76%. You sit 34.76 points above the line, which is a wide gap, so you call.
Few single draws land on exactly 17 outs, so add up each way to improve and check the total. One card hits 36.17% of the time here.
The $100 pot example
- Pot before the bet$100
- Bet$50
- Your call$50
- Pot after your call$200
- You can win on a hit$150
- Loss on a miss$50
- How often you hit59.76%
- Average value of the call+$69.52
- Equity the call needs25.00%
- Margin, to four decimals+34.7595 points
- Break-even count of outs6.23 outs
- Margin measured in outs+10.77 outs
Suppose a hit wins the entire pot, a miss loses your call, and no more betting follows. The average gain is $89.64, the average loss is $20.12, and calling gains $69.52 on average, or +1.390 per dollar called.
Put as odds, the draw is 0.67 : 1 against, and the pot offers 3 : 1 for the call.
Do not forget your own call. Dividing the bet by the pot without it gives 33.33%, not 25.00%, and would show a margin of +26.4261 points. The bet over the starting pot, 50.00%, is worse and would show +9.7595 points.
How much room the call has
Against this bet the draw needs 7 outs at the least. You have 10 outs more than that, so the call has some room.
After a hit you could give back up to $116.33 on later streets, 2.33 times your call, before the call stops paying.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 25.00% | +34.76 points | +$69.52 | Call |
| $10 | 26.32% | +33.44 points | +$63.54 | Call |
| $25 | 28.57% | +31.19 points | +$54.58 | Call |
| $50 | 33.33% | +26.43 points | +$39.64 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | +9.76 points | +$9.76 | Call |
The next card against the whole runout
Use either number and the verdict is a call. The next card is 36.17%, the full runout is 59.76%, and the price is 25.00%.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 59.76% | +34.7595 points | +$69.52 | Call |
| Next card only | 36.17% | +11.1702 points | +$22.34 | Call |
A few outs either way
Here are the neighbors of 17 outs, priced against the same 25.00%. One more out lifts your chance by about 2.68 points.
Other bet sizes for this draw
How much does bet size matter? The price climbs from 16.67% to 44.44% across the list, while 17 outs stay at 59.76%.
With 59.76% to hit, no bet on the list is too big. 17 outs call all 12 sizes on the flop.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +43.09 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +39.76 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +37.54 points | Call |
| half-pot, this page | 25.00% | +34.76 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +31.19 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +29.76 points | Call |
| pot-size | 33.33% | +26.43 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +24.05 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +22.26 points | Call |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | +19.76 points | Call |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | +16.90 points | Call |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | +15.32 points | Call |
How this is computed
Everything is computed from the closed form. Pairs without an out: 435 of 1,081. The rest, 59.76%, hold at least one out.
The numbers are a baseline rather than a prediction for one hand. The price is 25.00%, from $50 into $200, and the chance assumes a whole pot won on a hit, no more betting, 47 equally likely unseen cards, and no cards removed for the other player.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Does the math favor calling a half-pot bet with 17 outs on the flop?
Compare 59.76%, your chance to hit by the river, with 25.00%, the equity a half-pot bet needs. The gap is +34.76 points, so this is a call. In dollars on a $100 pot, the call averages +$69.52 when no more betting follows.
How many outs do you need to call a half-pot bet on the flop?
To call a half-pot bet on the flop you want 7 outs or more. 7 reach 27.84% and 6 reach 24.14%, with 25.00% as the bar. Your 17 outs are 10 over.
When is the next-card chance the better comparison?
Match the number to the betting: 59.76% if all-in or checked down, 36.17% if you face another bet on the turn. The price is 25.00%, and both numbers agree on call.
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