Verdict
Call
17 outs, flop, three-quarter-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come59.76%
- Equity the call needs$75 into a pot of $25030.00%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+29.76 points
The call in numbers
Your draw is priced at 30.00% and it arrives 59.76% of the time. A lead of 29.76 points is wide enough that the call stands even if the numbers shift a little.
Counts like 17 outs often come from a mix of draws. Of 47 unseen cards, 17 help, or 36.17% on one card.
A $100 pot, step by step
- The pot before betting$100
- The bet$75
- Your call$75
- Total pot after calling$250
- Gain on a hit$175
- Net loss when you miss$75
- How often you hit59.76%
- Expected value of a call+$74.40
- Break-even equity30.00%
- Margin, to four decimals+29.7595 points
- Fractional outs at the price7.59 outs
- Your outs minus break-even outs+9.41 outs
Suppose a hit wins the entire pot, a miss loses your call, and no more betting follows. The average gain is $104.58, the average loss is $30.18, and calling gains $74.40 on average, or +0.992 per dollar called.
Read as odds: 0.67 : 1 against you, 2.33 : 1 from the pot.
One easy error is to use 42.86%, the bet over the pot before your call, as the price. The right price is 30.00%, and the mistaken margin would be +16.9023 points. The bet over the starting pot, 75.00%, would claim -15.2405 points.
Where the call would flip
The fewest outs that still call a three-quarter-pot bet on the flop is 8. You hold 17, so you have 9 outs to spare before the call flips to a fold.
Reverse implied odds are the risk here. A hit that costs you $124.50 later, 1.66 times your call, is where the call stops being worth it.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 30.00% | +29.76 points | +$74.40 | Call |
| $10 | 31.25% | +28.51 points | +$68.42 | Call |
| $25 | 33.33% | +26.43 points | +$59.46 | Call |
| $50 | 37.50% | +22.26 points | +$44.52 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | +9.76 points | +$14.64 | Call |
Which chance to use
No conflict here: 59.76% for two cards and 36.17% for one both give a call against the 30.00% price, so you need not decide which view applies.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 59.76% | +29.7595 points | +$74.40 | Call |
| Next card only | 36.17% | +6.1702 points | +$15.43 | Call |
Counts close to yours
How fast does the margin move? About 2.68 points per out on the flop. The rows below keep the three-quarter-pot bet fixed and change only the outs.
Bigger and smaller bets
One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 17 outs on the flop.
A draw this strong has no ceiling inside the table. 59.76% tops every price from the smallest bet to the largest.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +43.09 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +39.76 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +37.54 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +34.76 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +31.19 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot, this page | 30.00% | +29.76 points | Call |
| pot-size | 33.33% | +26.43 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +24.05 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +22.26 points | Call |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | +19.76 points | Call |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | +16.90 points | Call |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | +15.32 points | Call |
How this is computed
The hit chance comes straight from combinations. Out of 1,081 pairs of unseen cards, 435 miss every out, so you hit 59.76% of the time.
These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $75 of a $250 pot (30.00%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 47 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Is a call correct with 17 outs against a three-quarter-pot bet on the flop?
By the numbers it is a call. 17 outs on the flop hit 59.76% by the river, a three-quarter-pot bet needs 30.00%, and the margin is +29.76 points. That assumes you call the full $75 and no more betting follows, and it values the call at +$74.40 per $100 pot.
How many outs are enough to continue against a bet of three quarters of the pot on the flop?
To call a three-quarter-pot bet on the flop you want 8 outs or more. 8 reach 31.45% and 7 reach 27.84%, with 30.00% as the bar. Your 17 outs are 9 over.
Which chance should you compare with the price, the next card or the river?
Use the by-the-river chance, 59.76%, when no more betting follows, and the next-card chance, 36.17%, when you must pay again on the turn. Against the 30.00% price both give a call, so the choice does not change the play here.
Related pages
Check your own hands against the numbers
Bring a hand you played and we will work through the price, the chance to hit and the decision together.
Book a session