44
48.36%
Wins 47.86%, ties 1.00%
J9s
51.64%
Wins 51.14%, ties 1.00%
44 against J9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 47.861 | 0.998 | 51.141 | 48.360 |
| J9s | 51.141 | 0.998 | 47.861 | 51.640 |
One side is a pocket pair, the other is a suited hand. This is a pair against two overcards, a matchup that stays close because the other hand only needs one of its ranks to appear.
This is close to even money, with J9s a little ahead. Ties are 1.00% of the outcomes here; each tied board gives both hands half the pot.
The hand ranking puts 44 at 48 and J9s at 55 out of 169 starting hands.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 19,669,000 | 410,000 | 21,017,000 |
| J9s | 21,017,000 | 410,000 | 19,669,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.936 | 2.089 | 1.955 | 1.068 |
| J9s | 1.068 | 1.955 | 2.089 | 0.936 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, J9s' equity runs from 42.78% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) up to 53.18% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. Low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and paired flops favor 44, the hand that is behind overall.
| Flop | Share of flops | 44 wins | Ties | J9s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.220 | 46.558 | 0.532 | 52.910 | 46.824 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.689 | 56.844 | 0.761 | 42.395 | 57.224 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 46.559 | 0.546 | 52.895 | 46.832 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 47.247 | 3.007 | 49.746 | 48.751 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 50.492 | 2.360 | 47.148 | 51.672 |
A rainbow flop shows three suits, a two-tone flop repeats one suit, a monotone flop is a single suit, and a paired flop repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
How much does the opponent matter? Compared with its random-hand 57.02%, 44 changes by -8.66 points, and J9s, from 55.66%, by -4.02.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44, all flops | 48.360 | 57.023 | -8.663 | 0.84808 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 46.824 | 57.023 | -10.199 | 0.82114 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 57.224 | 57.023 | +0.201 | 1.00352 |
| 44, two-tone | 46.832 | 57.023 | -10.191 | 0.82128 |
| 44, monotone | 48.751 | 57.023 | -8.272 | 0.85494 |
| 44, paired | 51.672 | 57.023 | -5.351 | 0.90616 |
| J9s, all flops | 51.640 | 55.662 | -4.022 | 0.92774 |
| J9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 53.176 | 55.662 | -2.486 | 0.95534 |
| J9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 42.776 | 55.662 | -12.886 | 0.76850 |
| J9s, two-tone | 53.168 | 55.662 | -2.494 | 0.95519 |
| J9s, monotone | 51.249 | 55.662 | -4.413 | 0.92072 |
| J9s, paired | 48.328 | 55.662 | -7.334 | 0.86824 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and J9s holds 51.49%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 51.79%. J9s does better with no shared suit, by 0.30 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | 44 wins | Ties | J9s wins | 44 equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 47.994 | 1.035 | 50.971 | 48.511 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 47.729 | 0.961 | 51.310 | 48.209 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0030% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 48 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, J9s' average share is $103.28 (a gain of $3.28) and 44's is $96.72 (a loss of $3.28).
Scaled to 1,000 deals, that is roughly 511 wins for J9s, 479 for 44 and 10 chopped pots.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, J9s against 44, shows 51.64% for J9s and 48.36% for 44. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
Try 4s4h against Jd9d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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