AKs
48.59%
Wins 48.32%, ties 0.53%
44
51.41%
Wins 51.15%, ties 0.53%
AKs against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 48.324 | 0.526 | 51.150 | 48.587 |
| 44 | 51.150 | 0.526 | 48.324 | 51.413 |
One side is a suited hand, the other is a pocket pair. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
With only 2.82 points between them, the board decides this matchup far more than the cards in hand. About 0.53% of boards chop the pot, which is why equity sits slightly above the win figure for both hands.
For context, AKs sits at number 8 of 169 starting hands and 44 at number 48 when each is run against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 19,859,000 | 216,000 | 21,020,000 |
| 44 | 21,020,000 | 216,000 | 19,859,000 |
The total is exact: 24 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards. The three counts are approximate, worked out from the percentages to five decimals and rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 0.945 | 2.069 | 1.955 | 1.058 |
| 44 | 1.058 | 1.955 | 2.069 | 0.945 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
44 prefers low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), where it holds 77.65%, and likes rainbow flops topped by a ten or better least, where it holds 46.06%. Watch for rainbow flops topped by a ten or better: on those flops AKs holds the better equity.
| Flop | Share of flops | AKs wins | Ties | 44 wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 24.595 | 53.840 | 0.199 | 45.961 | 53.940 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 6.314 | 21.816 | 1.069 | 77.115 | 22.351 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 49.595 | 0.343 | 50.062 | 49.766 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 47.502 | 2.828 | 49.670 | 48.916 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 46.985 | 0.592 | 52.423 | 47.281 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 67.05% for AKs, 57.02% for 44. Here the change is -18.46 and -5.61 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs, all flops | 48.587 | 67.045 | -18.458 | 0.72469 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 53.940 | 67.045 | -13.105 | 0.80453 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 22.351 | 67.045 | -44.694 | 0.33337 |
| AKs, two-tone | 49.766 | 67.045 | -17.279 | 0.74228 |
| AKs, monotone | 48.916 | 67.045 | -18.129 | 0.72960 |
| AKs, paired | 47.281 | 67.045 | -19.764 | 0.70521 |
| 44, all flops | 51.413 | 57.023 | -5.610 | 0.90162 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 46.060 | 57.023 | -10.963 | 0.80774 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 77.649 | 57.023 | +20.626 | 1.36171 |
| 44, two-tone | 50.234 | 57.023 | -6.789 | 0.88094 |
| 44, monotone | 51.084 | 57.023 | -5.939 | 0.89585 |
| 44, paired | 52.719 | 57.023 | -4.304 | 0.92452 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common 44 has 51.60% equity, and with none in common it has 51.23%. 44 does better with a shared suit, by 0.37 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AKs wins | Ties | 44 wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 48.119 | 0.564 | 51.317 | 48.401 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 48.529 | 0.488 | 50.983 | 48.773 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, AKs against 44 appears in 24 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0015%), and in 48 when the seats are swapped too (0.0030%).
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, 44's average share is $102.82 (a gain of $2.82) and AKs' is $97.18 (a loss of $2.82).
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 512 outright wins for 44, 483 for AKs, and 5 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, 44 against AKs, shows 51.41% for 44 and 48.59% for AKs. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsKs against 4h4d already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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