AKs
75.00%
Wins 74.43%, ties 1.13%
KTo
25.00%
Wins 24.44%, ties 1.13%
AKs against KTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 74.429 | 1.131 | 24.440 | 74.995 |
| KTo | 24.440 | 1.131 | 74.429 | 25.005 |
We compare a suited hand with an offsuit hand. Because the hands share one rank, the one with the higher kicker is ahead when that rank pairs and the other hand is mostly drawing.
AKs is well ahead, and KTo needs a specific kind of board to catch up. Split pots make up 1.13% of the boards, and both equity figures count them as half a win each.
By strength against a random hand, AKs holds place 8 of 169 and KTo holds place 33.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 45,880,000 | 697,000 | 15,066,000 |
| KTo | 15,066,000 | 697,000 | 45,880,000 |
Exact total: 36 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 2.999 | 1.344 | 4.092 | 0.333 |
| KTo | 0.333 | 4.092 | 1.344 | 2.999 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Split by what the flop looks like, AKs peaks at 85.13% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and bottoms out at 67.09% on monotone flops. AKs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | AKs wins | Ties | KTo wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.177 | 70.616 | 0.819 | 28.565 | 71.025 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 84.621 | 1.015 | 14.364 | 85.129 |
| Two-tone | 46.527 | 74.343 | 0.810 | 24.847 | 74.748 |
| Monotone | 5.192 | 65.810 | 2.563 | 31.627 | 67.091 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 77.773 | 2.033 | 20.194 | 78.790 |
Flop types: rainbow means three different suits, two-tone means one suit twice, monotone means one suit three times, paired means a repeated rank.
Compared with a random hand
The table below sets each hand against its own random-hand baseline: a change of +7.95 points for AKs, from 67.05%, and -34.74 for KTo, from 59.74%.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs, all flops | 74.995 | 67.045 | +7.950 | 1.11858 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 71.025 | 67.045 | +3.980 | 1.05936 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 85.129 | 67.045 | +18.084 | 1.26973 |
| AKs, two-tone | 74.748 | 67.045 | +7.703 | 1.11489 |
| AKs, monotone | 67.091 | 67.045 | +0.046 | 1.00069 |
| AKs, paired | 78.790 | 67.045 | +11.745 | 1.17518 |
| KTo, all flops | 25.005 | 59.739 | -34.734 | 0.41857 |
| KTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 28.975 | 59.739 | -30.764 | 0.48503 |
| KTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 14.871 | 59.739 | -44.868 | 0.24893 |
| KTo, two-tone | 25.252 | 59.739 | -34.487 | 0.42271 |
| KTo, monotone | 32.909 | 59.739 | -26.830 | 0.55088 |
| KTo, paired | 21.210 | 59.739 | -38.529 | 0.35504 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common AKs has 74.75% equity, and with none in common it has 75.12%. AKs does better with no shared suit, by 0.37 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AKs wins | Ties | KTo wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 33.33 | 74.152 | 1.198 | 24.650 | 74.751 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 66.67 | 74.568 | 1.098 | 24.334 | 75.117 |
How often this matchup comes up
You will meet this exact matchup 0.0044% of the time in a random heads-up deal: 72 of 1,624,350, counting either seat order.
A worked example
A $100 all-in from each player makes a $200 pot, and the exact equity says AKs gets $150.00 of it on average and KTo gets $50.00.
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 744 for AKs, 245 for KTo and 11 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
KTo against AKs adds nothing new: it is 25.00% for KTo and 75.00% for AKs, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
AsKs against KhTd is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 36 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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