AKs
66.12%
Wins 65.88%, ties 0.47%
QTo
33.88%
Wins 33.65%, ties 0.47%
AKs against QTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 65.883 | 0.472 | 33.645 | 66.119 |
| QTo | 33.645 | 0.472 | 65.883 | 33.881 |
The matchup pits a suited hand against an offsuit hand. Neither hand shares a rank with the other, so this is a contest of high cards, connection and suits.
AKs is well ahead, and QTo needs a specific kind of board to catch up. Ties are part of the picture: 0.47% of boards end in a split pot, and each side counts that as half a win.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, AKs is number 8 of the 169 starting hands and QTo is number 47.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 54,150,000 | 388,000 | 27,653,000 |
| QTo | 27,653,000 | 388,000 | 54,150,000 |
The board total is exact, 48 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs | 1.952 | 1.518 | 2.972 | 0.512 |
| QTo | 0.512 | 2.972 | 1.518 | 1.952 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, AKs' equity runs from 61.82% on monotone flops up to 74.94% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). AKs stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AKs wins | Ties | QTo wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.260 | 61.917 | 0.112 | 37.971 | 61.973 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.770 | 74.446 | 0.994 | 24.560 | 74.943 |
| Two-tone | 46.667 | 66.165 | 0.302 | 33.533 | 66.316 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 60.628 | 2.386 | 36.986 | 61.821 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 68.217 | 0.604 | 31.179 | 68.519 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 67.05% for AKs, 57.29% for QTo. Here the change is -0.93 and -23.41 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKs, all flops | 66.119 | 67.045 | -0.926 | 0.98619 |
| AKs, rainbow, ten or higher | 61.973 | 67.045 | -5.072 | 0.92435 |
| AKs, rainbow, nine or lower | 74.943 | 67.045 | +7.898 | 1.11780 |
| AKs, two-tone | 66.316 | 67.045 | -0.729 | 0.98913 |
| AKs, monotone | 61.821 | 67.045 | -5.224 | 0.92208 |
| AKs, paired | 68.519 | 67.045 | +1.474 | 1.02199 |
| QTo, all flops | 33.881 | 57.291 | -23.410 | 0.59138 |
| QTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 38.027 | 57.291 | -19.264 | 0.66375 |
| QTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 25.057 | 57.291 | -32.234 | 0.43736 |
| QTo, two-tone | 33.684 | 57.291 | -23.607 | 0.58795 |
| QTo, monotone | 38.179 | 57.291 | -19.112 | 0.66640 |
| QTo, paired | 31.481 | 57.291 | -25.810 | 0.54949 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Does suit overlap move the numbers? AKs has 65.92% when the hands share a suit and 66.32% when they do not. AKs does better with no shared suit, by 0.40 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AKs wins | Ties | QTo wins | AKs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 24 | 50.00 | 65.664 | 0.512 | 33.824 | 65.920 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 50.00 | 66.102 | 0.431 | 33.467 | 66.317 |
How often this matchup comes up
AKs against QTo is made up of 48 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0030% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 96 counting both seat orders, 0.0059%.
A worked example
Worked example: both players commit $100, so $200 sits in the middle. Over every board, AKs' average share is $132.24 (a gain of $32.24) and QTo's is $67.76 (a loss of $32.24).
Over a long run, 1,000 deals split into about 659 for AKs, 336 for QTo and 5 tied.
The same matchup from the other side
The mirror image, QTo against AKs, is 33.88% to 66.12%, and its address redirects to this page.
Keep exploring
AsKs against QhTd is a ready-made deal for the calculator, with no suit in common between the hands. The neighboring matchups below replace one hand with another of similar strength.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 48 specific AKs against QTo deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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