AQs
62.20%
Wins 61.95%, ties 0.50%
JTs
37.80%
Wins 37.55%, ties 0.50%
AQs against JTs: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 61.952 | 0.500 | 37.548 | 62.202 |
| JTs | 37.548 | 0.500 | 61.952 | 37.798 |
AQs and JTs are both suited hands. With no overlap in ranks, every card that pairs one hand is a card that does not pair the other.
That is a modest edge, the kind that shows up over many hands and is easy to miss in one. A split pot comes up on 0.50% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
AQs ranks number 10 of 169 starting hands, and JTs ranks number 45, by equity against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 16,973,000 | 137,000 | 10,287,000 |
| JTs | 10,287,000 | 137,000 | 16,973,000 |
16 specific deals times 1,712,304 boards gives the exact total. The won, tied and lost counts are approximations from the five-decimal percentages, rounded to the nearest thousand.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs | 1.646 | 1.614 | 2.663 | 0.608 |
| JTs | 0.608 | 2.663 | 1.614 | 1.646 |
In the last column, a pot-to-call ratio at or above the figure makes a call break even or better at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
The flop changes the picture. AQs does best on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower), at 69.18%, and worst on monotone flops, at 59.32%. AQs stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | AQs wins | Ties | JTs wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.138 | 59.967 | 0.106 | 39.927 | 60.020 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 68.745 | 0.877 | 30.378 | 69.184 |
| Two-tone | 46.727 | 61.294 | 0.263 | 38.443 | 61.426 |
| Monotone | 5.273 | 57.616 | 3.410 | 38.974 | 59.321 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 64.689 | 0.612 | 34.699 | 64.995 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Relative to a random opponent, AQs changes by -4.01 points (baseline 66.21%) and JTs by -19.73 points (baseline 57.53%).
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AQs, all flops | 62.202 | 66.209 | -4.007 | 0.93948 |
| AQs, rainbow, ten or higher | 60.020 | 66.209 | -6.189 | 0.90652 |
| AQs, rainbow, nine or lower | 69.184 | 66.209 | +2.975 | 1.04493 |
| AQs, two-tone | 61.426 | 66.209 | -4.783 | 0.92776 |
| AQs, monotone | 59.321 | 66.209 | -6.888 | 0.89597 |
| AQs, paired | 64.995 | 66.209 | -1.214 | 0.98166 |
| JTs, all flops | 37.798 | 57.528 | -19.730 | 0.65704 |
| JTs, rainbow, ten or higher | 39.980 | 57.528 | -17.548 | 0.69497 |
| JTs, rainbow, nine or lower | 30.816 | 57.528 | -26.712 | 0.53567 |
| JTs, two-tone | 38.574 | 57.528 | -18.954 | 0.67053 |
| JTs, monotone | 40.679 | 57.528 | -16.849 | 0.70712 |
| JTs, paired | 35.005 | 57.528 | -22.523 | 0.60849 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common AQs has 64.51% equity, and with none in common it has 61.44%. AQs does better with a shared suit, by 3.07 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | AQs wins | Ties | JTs wins | AQs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 4 | 25.00 | 64.216 | 0.577 | 35.207 | 64.505 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 75.00 | 61.197 | 0.475 | 38.328 | 61.435 |
How often this matchup comes up
This page stands for 16 specific-card matchups (0.0010% of 1,624,350 ordered deals), or 32 once you count the seats both ways (0.0020%).
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. AQs averages $124.40 from the $200, up $24.40; JTs averages $75.60, down $24.40.
In 1,000 deals of exactly this matchup, expect about 620 won outright by AQs, about 375 won outright by JTs and about 5 split.
The same matchup from the other side
If you came looking for JTs against AQs, the numbers are the same with the hands swapped: 37.80% and 62.20%.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsQs against JhTh already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
We counted every case. Each suit pattern of the 16 specific AQs against JTs deals meets all 1,712,304 boards, and the better five-card hand wins; a split pot is half a win each. The flop table reads each board under all ten of its three-card flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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