ATs
73.76%
Wins 72.85%, ties 1.82%
QTo
26.24%
Wins 25.33%, ties 1.82%
ATs against QTo: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 72.852 | 1.823 | 25.325 | 73.763 |
| QTo | 25.325 | 1.823 | 72.852 | 26.237 |
Here a suited hand (ATs) meets an offsuit hand (QTo). Sharing a rank is the signature of a dominated hand, since the weaker hand is usually out-kicked when the shared rank shows up.
ATs is well ahead, and QTo needs a specific kind of board to catch up. A split pot comes up on 1.82% of boards, so the wins and the equity differ by half of that.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, ATs is number 13 of the 169 starting hands and QTo is number 47.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 44,908,000 | 1,124,000 | 15,611,000 |
| QTo | 15,611,000 | 1,124,000 | 44,908,000 |
The board total is exact, 36 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs | 2.811 | 1.373 | 3.949 | 0.356 |
| QTo | 0.356 | 3.949 | 1.373 | 2.811 |
The last column is the break-even price: the pot odds a call needs to offer, as a ratio of pot to call.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures ATs' equity moves by 18.14 points, from 66.22% on monotone flops to 84.36% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower). ATs stays ahead on all five textures, but the swing between them is large, so how the flop looks matters a great deal.
| Flop | Share of flops | ATs wins | Ties | QTo wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.177 | 68.793 | 1.400 | 29.807 | 69.493 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.771 | 82.975 | 2.766 | 14.259 | 84.358 |
| Two-tone | 46.527 | 72.715 | 1.600 | 25.685 | 73.515 |
| Monotone | 5.192 | 64.673 | 3.096 | 32.231 | 66.221 |
| Paired | 17.333 | 76.557 | 2.182 | 21.261 | 77.648 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Start from the random-hand figures, 64.60% for ATs and 57.29% for QTo. This opponent changes them by +9.16 and -31.05 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATs, all flops | 73.763 | 64.602 | +9.161 | 1.14181 |
| ATs, rainbow, ten or higher | 69.493 | 64.602 | +4.891 | 1.07571 |
| ATs, rainbow, nine or lower | 84.358 | 64.602 | +19.756 | 1.30581 |
| ATs, two-tone | 73.515 | 64.602 | +8.913 | 1.13797 |
| ATs, monotone | 66.221 | 64.602 | +1.619 | 1.02506 |
| ATs, paired | 77.648 | 64.602 | +13.046 | 1.20194 |
| QTo, all flops | 26.237 | 57.291 | -31.054 | 0.45796 |
| QTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 30.507 | 57.291 | -26.784 | 0.53249 |
| QTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 15.642 | 57.291 | -41.649 | 0.27303 |
| QTo, two-tone | 26.485 | 57.291 | -30.806 | 0.46229 |
| QTo, monotone | 33.779 | 57.291 | -23.512 | 0.58960 |
| QTo, paired | 22.352 | 57.291 | -34.939 | 0.39015 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and ATs holds 73.51%. In 24 they do not, and it holds 73.89%. ATs does better with no shared suit, by 0.38 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | ATs wins | Ties | QTo wins | ATs equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 33.33 | 72.559 | 1.910 | 25.531 | 73.514 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 66.67 | 72.998 | 1.779 | 25.223 | 73.888 |
How often this matchup comes up
Exactly 36 specific deals fit this matchup in one seat order, which is 0.0022% of 1,624,350; both orders together give 72, or 0.0044%.
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. ATs averages $147.52 from the $200, up $47.52; QTo averages $52.48, down $47.52.
A thousand deals look like this: ATs takes 729, QTo takes 253, 18 are ties.
The same matchup from the other side
Read it from the other side: QTo against ATs is the same matchup with the numbers swapped, so QTo holds 26.24% and ATs holds 73.76%. That address sends you back to this page.
Keep exploring
Open the calculator with AsTs against QhTd already entered, a deal with no shared suit, and change any card to try your own hand. The matchups after it each swap one hand for a nearby one in the ranking.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 36 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
Bring your own hands to a session
Review the spots you actually play against these numbers in a Game Assessment, and leave with a one-page written plan.
Book a session