KTo
60.59%
Wins 60.26%, ties 0.67%
Q9s
39.41%
Wins 39.07%, ties 0.67%
KTo against Q9s: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTo | 60.256 | 0.672 | 39.072 | 60.592 |
| Q9s | 39.072 | 0.672 | 60.256 | 39.408 |
KTo and Q9s are an offsuit hand and a suited hand, in that order. With no overlap in ranks, every card that pairs one hand is a card that does not pair the other.
KTo is ahead, but Q9s is far from dead: it takes 391 of every 1,000 deals outright. 0.67% of boards are ties, so the equity of each hand is its win rate plus half of that.
Place 33 of 169 belongs to KTo and place 43 belongs to Q9s in the ranking against a random hand.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| KTo | 49,525,000 | 552,000 | 32,114,000 |
| Q9s | 32,114,000 | 552,000 | 49,525,000 |
Exact total: 48 deals times 1,712,304 boards. The other three counts come from the five-decimal percentages and are rounded to the nearest thousand, so read them as approximate.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTo | 1.538 | 1.660 | 2.559 | 0.650 |
| Q9s | 0.650 | 2.559 | 1.660 | 1.538 |
The final column gives the least the pot must offer for each unit called for a call to break even at this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
Across the five flop textures KTo's equity moves by 6.00 points, from 57.36% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) to 63.36% on rainbow flops topped by a ten or better. KTo stays ahead on all five textures.
| Flop | Share of flops | KTo wins | Ties | Q9s wins | KTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 23.988 | 63.210 | 0.295 | 36.495 | 63.357 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 7.042 | 56.958 | 0.798 | 42.244 | 57.357 |
| Two-tone | 46.667 | 58.829 | 0.378 | 40.793 | 59.018 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 56.530 | 2.452 | 41.018 | 57.756 |
| Paired | 17.091 | 62.502 | 1.410 | 36.088 | 63.207 |
Rainbow flops have three suits, two-tone flops repeat one suit, monotone flops are all one suit, and paired flops repeat a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Compared with a random opponent, this matchup shifts KTo from 59.74% by +0.85 points and Q9s from 57.66% by -18.25 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTo, all flops | 60.592 | 59.739 | +0.853 | 1.01428 |
| KTo, rainbow, ten or higher | 63.357 | 59.739 | +3.618 | 1.06056 |
| KTo, rainbow, nine or lower | 57.357 | 59.739 | -2.382 | 0.96013 |
| KTo, two-tone | 59.018 | 59.739 | -0.721 | 0.98793 |
| KTo, monotone | 57.756 | 59.739 | -1.983 | 0.96681 |
| KTo, paired | 63.207 | 59.739 | +3.468 | 1.05805 |
| Q9s, all flops | 39.408 | 57.664 | -18.256 | 0.68341 |
| Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 36.643 | 57.664 | -21.021 | 0.63546 |
| Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 42.643 | 57.664 | -15.021 | 0.73951 |
| Q9s, two-tone | 40.982 | 57.664 | -16.682 | 0.71070 |
| Q9s, monotone | 42.244 | 57.664 | -15.420 | 0.73259 |
| Q9s, paired | 36.793 | 57.664 | -20.871 | 0.63806 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Suit overlap shows up in the numbers. With a suit in common KTo has 61.14% equity, and with none in common it has 60.04%. KTo does better with a shared suit, by 1.10 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | KTo wins | Ties | Q9s wins | KTo equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 24 | 50.00 | 60.785 | 0.712 | 38.503 | 61.141 |
| No shared suit | 24 | 50.00 | 59.727 | 0.632 | 39.641 | 60.043 |
How often this matchup comes up
Counting specific cards, KTo against Q9s appears in 48 of the 1,624,350 ordered heads-up deals (0.0030%), and in 96 when the seats are swapped too (0.0059%).
A worked example
Say each player puts $100 in before the flop, making a $200 pot. On average KTo takes back $121.18 of it, which is $21.18 more than it put in, and Q9s takes back $78.82, $21.18 less than it put in.
Per 1,000 deals: KTo wins about 602, Q9s wins about 391, and about 7 end in a split pot.
The same matchup from the other side
Q9s against KTo adds nothing new: it is 39.41% for Q9s and 60.59% for KTo, the same figures reversed.
Keep exploring
The calculator link fills in KsTh against Qd9d, a deal where the two hands share no suit. Change any card to test your own hand. The neighboring matchups below swap one of the two hands for one of similar strength.
How this was computed
Each figure is a complete count over boards. Take the 48 specific deals, group them by suit pattern, deal all 1,712,304 boards against each, and compare the two seven-card hands. Equity counts a tie as half a win; the flop rows use every one of a board's ten flops.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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