Q9s
50.62%
Wins 50.19%, ties 0.84%
44
49.38%
Wins 48.97%, ties 0.84%
Q9s against 44: the numbers
| Hand | Wins | Ties | Loses | Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s | 50.194 | 0.842 | 48.964 | 50.615 |
| 44 | 48.964 | 0.842 | 50.194 | 49.385 |
Q9s is a suited hand and 44 is a pocket pair. One hand holds a pair and the other holds two cards that both outrank it, which keeps the equity closer than most people expect.
This is close to even money, with Q9s a little ahead. About 0.84% of boards chop the pot, which is why equity sits slightly above the win figure for both hands.
Ranked by equity against a random hand, Q9s is number 43 of the 169 starting hands and 44 is number 48.
| Hand | Boards won, about | Boards tied, about | Boards lost, about |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s | 20,627,000 | 346,000 | 20,122,000 |
| 44 | 20,122,000 | 346,000 | 20,627,000 |
The board total is exact, 24 deals at 1,712,304 boards each. Won, tied and lost counts are rounded to the nearest thousand from the five-decimal percentages.
| Hand | Equity as odds (to 1) | Wins one deal in | Loses one deal in | Pot odds needed to call (to 1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s | 1.025 | 1.992 | 2.042 | 0.976 |
| 44 | 0.976 | 2.042 | 1.992 | 1.025 |
The last column is the smallest pot odds, written as a pot-to-call ratio, at which a call breaks even with this equity.
Who is ahead on which flops
By flop texture, Q9s' equity runs from 41.42% on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) up to 52.04% on two-tone flops. 44 is ahead on low rainbow flops (nine high or lower) and paired flops, even though it trails Q9s when every flop is counted.
| Flop | Share of flops | Q9s wins | Ties | 44 wins | Q9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow, ten or higher | 25.220 | 51.734 | 0.429 | 47.837 | 51.948 |
| Rainbow, nine or lower | 5.689 | 40.991 | 0.854 | 58.155 | 41.418 |
| Two-tone | 46.545 | 51.801 | 0.479 | 47.720 | 52.041 |
| Monotone | 5.212 | 48.993 | 2.948 | 48.059 | 50.467 |
| Paired | 17.334 | 47.022 | 1.782 | 51.196 | 47.913 |
Read the flop types this way: rainbow has three suits, two-tone has two cards of one suit, monotone has three, and paired repeats a rank.
Compared with a random hand
Each hand has a baseline against a random hand: 57.66% for Q9s, 57.02% for 44. Here the change is -7.04 and -7.64 points.
| Case | Equity here | Against a random hand | Change in points | Times the random-hand equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q9s, all flops | 50.615 | 57.664 | -7.049 | 0.87776 |
| Q9s, rainbow, ten or higher | 51.948 | 57.664 | -5.716 | 0.90087 |
| Q9s, rainbow, nine or lower | 41.418 | 57.664 | -16.246 | 0.71826 |
| Q9s, two-tone | 52.041 | 57.664 | -5.623 | 0.90249 |
| Q9s, monotone | 50.467 | 57.664 | -7.197 | 0.87519 |
| Q9s, paired | 47.913 | 57.664 | -9.751 | 0.83090 |
| 44, all flops | 49.385 | 57.023 | -7.638 | 0.86605 |
| 44, rainbow, ten or higher | 48.052 | 57.023 | -8.971 | 0.84268 |
| 44, rainbow, nine or lower | 58.582 | 57.023 | +1.559 | 1.02734 |
| 44, two-tone | 47.959 | 57.023 | -9.064 | 0.84105 |
| 44, monotone | 49.533 | 57.023 | -7.490 | 0.86865 |
| 44, paired | 52.087 | 57.023 | -4.936 | 0.91344 |
Does a shared suit matter?
Two kinds of deal exist here. In 12 of them the hands share a suit and Q9s holds 50.45%. In 12 they do not, and it holds 50.78%. Q9s does better with no shared suit, by 0.33 points.
| Deals | Specific deals | Share of deals | Q9s wins | Ties | 44 wins | Q9s equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share a suit | 12 | 50.00 | 50.009 | 0.879 | 49.112 | 50.449 |
| No shared suit | 12 | 50.00 | 50.380 | 0.805 | 48.815 | 50.782 |
How often this matchup comes up
Q9s against 44 is made up of 24 specific-card matchups in one seat order, 0.0015% of the 1,624,350 ordered deals, and 48 counting both seat orders, 0.0030%.
A worked example
Try it with money: two players each put in $100 and the whole board runs out every possible way. Q9s averages $101.24 from the $200, up $1.24; 44 averages $98.76, down $1.24.
Out of 1,000 deals you should see around 502 outright wins for Q9s, 490 for 44, and 8 split pots.
The same matchup from the other side
The reversed view, 44 against Q9s, shows 49.38% for 44 and 50.62% for Q9s. It is the same count, so it redirects here.
Keep exploring
Try Qs9s against 4h4d in the calculator: the hands share no suit, and every card can be changed. The links after it are the closest matchups in the ranking.
How this was computed
The figures are counted, not estimated: 1,712,304 boards for every suit pattern of the 24 specific deals, with both seven-card hands compared each time. Equity gives half a win for a tie. For the flop rows, a board is counted once under each of the ten flops inside it.
Source: our own exact count from the GeorgeLiPoker poker math library. No outside data is used.
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