Verdict
Call
19 outs, flop, pot-size bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come65.03%
- Equity the call needs$100 into a pot of $30033.33%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+31.70 points
The price of the call
This is one of the easier spots. 19 outs on the flop reach 65.03% by the river, the pot-size bet asks for just 33.33%, and the 31.70-point margin favors the call.
Counts like 19 outs often come from a mix of draws. Of 47 unseen cards, 19 help, or 40.43% on one card.
The same spot in dollars
- Pot before the bet$100
- Bet$100
- Your call$100
- Pot after your call$300
- What a hit wins$200
- Net loss when you miss$100
- Probability of a hit65.03%
- Expected value of calling+$95.10
- Equity the call needs33.33%
- Margin, to four decimals+31.6990 points
- Break-even count of outs8.53 outs
- Margin measured in outs+10.47 outs
If you win the whole pot on a hit and lose your call otherwise, with no more betting, calling gains $95.10 on average. Hits add $130.06 on average and misses cost $34.97 on average, or +0.951 per dollar called.
Read as odds: 0.54 : 1 against you, 2 : 1 from the pot.
The price is 33.33% because your call goes into the pot too. Leave it out and you get 50.00%, a margin of +15.0324 points that does not exist.
Slack in the call
The threshold is 9 outs, a chance of 34.97%. With 19 in hand you are 10 outs clear of it.
After a hit you could give back up to $146.23 on later streets, 1.46 times your call, before the call stops paying.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 33.33% | +31.70 points | +$95.10 | Call |
| $10 | 34.48% | +30.55 points | +$88.59 | Call |
| $25 | 36.36% | +28.67 points | +$78.84 | Call |
| $50 | 40.00% | +25.03 points | +$62.58 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | +15.03 points | +$30.06 | Call |
Which chance to use
One card or two, the call comes out the same way. 40.43% on the next card and 65.03% by the river both sit on the call side of 33.33%.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 65.03% | +31.6990 points | +$95.10 | Call |
| Next card only | 40.43% | +7.0922 points | +$21.28 | Call |
The call as outs change
Move up or down a few outs and watch the verdict. Every extra out is worth about 2.50 points on the flop, and the price stays at 33.33%.
The same draw against other bet sizes
One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 19 outs on the flop.
Your chance is high enough that any bet in the table is a call. All 12 sizes clear with 65.03%.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +48.37 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +45.03 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +42.81 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +40.03 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +36.46 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +35.03 points | Call |
| pot-size, this page | 33.33% | +31.70 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +29.32 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +27.53 points | Call |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | +25.03 points | Call |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | +22.18 points | Call |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | +20.59 points | Call |
How this is computed
Counting is exact: the pairs of unseen cards with no out number 378 out of 1,081, so hitting by the river has chance 65.03%.
These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $100 of a $300 pot (33.33%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 47 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Does the math favor calling a pot-size bet with 19 outs on the flop?
Verdict: call. A pot-size bet asks for 33.33% and you have 65.03%, a margin of +31.70 points. For a $100 call into a $100 pot, with no later bets and the whole pot won on a hit, the average is +$95.10.
At what count of outs does a pot-size bet on the flop become a call?
To call a pot-size bet on the flop you want 9 outs or more. 9 reach 34.97% and 8 reach 31.45%, with 33.33% as the bar. Your 19 outs are 10 over.
When is the next-card chance the better comparison?
Two cards cost one bet only if the hand really ends here, and then 65.03% applies. If you will face the turn bet as well, 40.43% applies. Versus 33.33%, both views give a call.
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