Verdict
Fold
5 outs, turn, two-thirds-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the riverone card to come10.87%
- Equity the call needs$66.67 into a pot of $233.3328.57%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price-17.70 points
How the verdict is reached
The call is clearly not worth making. 10.87% is your chance to hit, 28.57% is the price, and the gap between them is 17.70 points.
Counts like 5 outs often come from a mix of draws. Of 46 unseen cards, 5 help, or 10.87% on one card.
Putting dollars on the call
- Pot before the bet$100
- Bet$66.67
- You call$66.67
- Pot with your call in$233.33
- Gain on a hit$166.67
- Net loss when you miss$66.67
- Your chance to hit10.87%
- Expected value of a call-$41.30
- Break-even equity28.57%
- Your chance minus the price, unrounded-17.7019 points
- Fractional outs at the price13.14 outs
- Your outs minus break-even outs-8.14 outs
Suppose a hit wins the entire pot, a miss loses your call, and no more betting follows. The average gain is $18.12, the average loss is $59.42, and calling loses $41.30 on average, or -0.620 per dollar called.
Read as odds: 8.2 : 1 against you, 2.5 : 1 from the pot.
The price is 28.57% because your call goes into the pot too. Leave it out and you get 40.00%, a margin of -29.1304 points that does not exist; use the starting pot instead and 66.67% puts the margin at -55.7971 points.
What it would take to call
Your chance is 10.87%, so a hit has to pay $613.33 in all, or $380 more than the pot you can see. That extra is 5.70 times what you call.
14 outs is the threshold against a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn, a chance of 30.43%. That is 9 more than your 5.
| Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 28.57% | -17.70 points | -$41.30 | Fold |
| $50 | 23.53% | -12.66 points | -$35.87 | Fold |
| $100 | 20.00% | -9.13 points | -$30.43 | Fold |
| $250 | 13.79% | -2.92 points | -$14.13 | Fold |
| $500 | 9.09% | +1.78 points | +$13.04 | Call |
Turn against flop
Only the river remains, so there is just one number: 10.87%. For reference, the same draw on the flop was 20.35%, 9.48 points higher, which against 28.57% is a fold.
| Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flop, two cards to come | 20.35% | -8.2199 points | -$19.18 | Fold |
| Turn, one card to come | 10.87% | -17.7019 points | -$41.30 | Fold |
The call as outs change
How fast does the margin move? About 2.17 points per out on the turn. The rows below keep the two-thirds-pot bet fixed and change only the outs.
The same draw against other bet sizes
Look down the margin column to see where the draw stops paying. Every row uses 5 outs on the turn and a bet of a different size.
No bet size in the table is a call. The smallest, quarter-pot, needs 16.67% against your 10.87%, and the largest bet this draw could call is only 0.14 times the pot ($13.89 on a $100 pot).
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | -5.80 points | Fold |
| third-pot | 20.00% | -9.13 points | Fold |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -11.35 points | Fold |
| half-pot | 25.00% | -14.13 points | Fold |
| two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -17.70 points | Fold |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -19.13 points | Fold |
| pot-size | 33.33% | -22.46 points | Fold |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -24.84 points | Fold |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -26.63 points | Fold |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -29.13 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -31.99 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -33.57 points | Fold |
How this is computed
Here is how 10.87% was found. There is one card to come, so the chance is read directly from 5 outs among 46 unseen cards.
These figures describe a clean spot. You pay the whole bet, which costs $66.67 of a $233.33 pot (28.57%), collect the whole pot on a hit, meet no more bets, and draw from 46 equally likely cards, with no adjustment for an opponent's hand.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Are 5 outs on the turn worth a call against a bet of two thirds of the pot?
Verdict: fold. A two-thirds-pot bet asks for 28.57% and you have 10.87%, a margin of -17.70 points. For a $66.67 call into a $100 pot, with no later bets and the whole pot won on a hit, the average is -$41.30.
What is the fewest outs that can call a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn?
The threshold is 14 outs. It gives 30.43%, clearing 28.57%, whereas 13 gives only 28.26%. Holding 5 puts you 9 below it, with a chance of 10.87%.
Which hit chance fits a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn?
They are one number here. With a single card to come, 10.87% is both the next-card chance and the by-the-river chance, and it gives a fold against 28.57%, a margin of -17.70 points.
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