Verdict
Fold
6 outs, turn, two-thirds-pot bet
- Chance to hit by the riverone card to come13.04%
- Equity the call needs$66.67 into a pot of $233.3328.57%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price-15.53 points
The call in numbers
The call is clearly not worth making. 13.04% is your chance to hit, 28.57% is the price, and the gap between them is 15.53 points.
6 outs is the standard count for two overcards. Of the 46 unseen cards on the turn, 6 complete it, which is 13.04% on the very next card.
The arithmetic of this call
- Starting pot$100
- Your opponent bets$66.67
- Cost to call$66.67
- Total pot after calling$233.33
- You can win on a hit$166.67
- Net loss when you miss$66.67
- Chance to hit by the river13.04%
- Average value of the call-$36.23
- Price of the call28.57%
- Unrounded margin-15.5280 points
- Outs at break-even13.14 outs
- Outs to spare, exactly-7.14 outs
If you win the whole pot on a hit and lose your call otherwise, with no more betting, calling loses $36.23 on average. Hits add $21.74 on average and misses cost $57.97 on average, or -0.543 per dollar called.
In odds, you face 6.67 : 1 against you and the pot pays 2.5 : 1.
Counting the pot without your call makes the price look like 40.00%, when the real price is 28.57%. On that mistaken price the margin would read -26.9565 points; on 66.67%, the bet over the starting pot, it would read -53.6232 points.
The price with implied odds
Implied odds are the way to close the gap. You need $277.78 more on later streets after hitting, which is 4.17 times the call you make.
14 outs is the threshold against a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn, a chance of 30.43%. That is 8 more than your 6.
| Future winnings | Price with them | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 28.57% | -15.53 points | -$36.23 | Fold |
| $50 | 23.53% | -10.49 points | -$29.71 | Fold |
| $100 | 20.00% | -6.96 points | -$23.19 | Fold |
| $250 | 13.79% | -0.75 points | -$3.62 | Fold |
| $500 | 9.09% | +3.95 points | +$28.99 | Call |
Turn against flop
One street later the draw is weaker. The same 6 outs hit 24.14% from the flop and 13.04% from the turn, a drop of 11.10 points, and the verdict on the flop would have been a fold.
| Street | Chance by the river | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flop, two cards to come | 24.14% | -4.4271 points | -$10.33 | Fold |
| Turn, one card to come | 13.04% | -15.5280 points | -$36.23 | Fold |
Nearby draws
Here are the neighbors of 6 outs, priced against the same 28.57%. One more out lifts your chance by about 2.17 points.
How bet size moves the answer
Keep 6 outs and change only the bet. The price rises from the smallest size to the largest, and the two-thirds-pot row is marked as this page.
Even the smallest bet on the list outprices 6 outs on the turn. The break-even bet is 0.18 times the pot ($17.65 on a $100 pot), and every one of the 12 sizes is above it.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | -3.62 points | Fold |
| third-pot | 20.00% | -6.96 points | Fold |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | -9.18 points | Fold |
| half-pot | 25.00% | -11.96 points | Fold |
| two-thirds-pot, this page | 28.57% | -15.53 points | Fold |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | -16.96 points | Fold |
| pot-size | 33.33% | -20.29 points | Fold |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | -22.67 points | Fold |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | -24.46 points | Fold |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | -26.96 points | Fold |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -29.81 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -31.40 points | Fold |
How this is computed
The number is exact rather than estimated. 6 of the 46 cards that could come are outs, which is 13.04%.
Keep the assumptions in view: a full call ($66.67 into $233.33, or 28.57%), the whole pot on a hit, no more betting, and 46 unseen cards that are equally likely. The math does not know what the other player holds.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Should you call a two-thirds-pot bet with 6 outs on the turn?
Reduce the question to a comparison of two numbers: 13.04% to hit and 28.57% to break even. The first minus the second is -15.53 points, which makes this a fold, and the call averages -$36.23 on a $100 pot if no more betting follows.
How strong must a draw be to call a two-thirds-pot bet on the turn?
A call starts to work at 14 outs: 30.43% to hit versus 28.57% needed. One out fewer drops the chance to 28.26%. You hold 6, which is 8 fewer than the minimum.
Which chance should you compare with the price, the next card or the river?
The question belongs to the flop. On the turn, 6 outs among 46 cards give 13.04% either way, and against 28.57% that is a fold by 15.53 points.
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