Verdict
Call
11 outs, flop, pot-size bet
- Chance to hit by the rivertwo cards to come41.72%
- Equity the call needs$100 into a pot of $30033.33%
- Margin over the priceyour chance minus the price+8.39 points
How the verdict is reached
With 11 outs on the flop you hit 41.72% of the time by the river, and a pot-size bet only asks for 33.33%. That 8.39-point cushion makes this a clear call.
You will reach 11 outs by adding up separate draws. With 47 cards unseen, the next card helps 23.40% of the time.
The arithmetic of this call
- Starting pot$100
- Bet$100
- Chips you put in$100
- Pot with your call in$300
- Gain on a hit$200
- Net loss when you miss$100
- Chance to hit by the river41.72%
- Average value of the call+$25.16
- Break-even equity33.33%
- Margin, to four decimals+8.3873 points
- Outs that exactly reach the price8.53 outs
- Margin measured in outs+2.47 outs
Price it in dollars, with no later bets: win the whole pot on a hit, lose the call on a miss. That averages $83.44 in and $58.28 out, so calling gains $25.16 on average at +0.252 per dollar called.
Stated as odds, you are 1.4 : 1 against hitting and the call gets 2 : 1 from the pot.
Do not forget your own call. Dividing the bet by the pot without it gives 50.00%, not 33.33%, and would show a margin of -8.2794 points.
What could go wrong before the call flips
With 11 outs you sit 2 outs above the minimum of 9 that a pot-size bet requires on the flop.
The call keeps its edge until you lose $60.31 on later streets after hitting. That is 0.60 times the $100 you pay now.
| Given back later | Price with it | Your chance minus price | Value of the call | Call? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0 | 33.33% | +8.39 points | +$25.16 | Call |
| $10 | 34.48% | +7.24 points | +$20.99 | Call |
| $25 | 36.36% | +5.36 points | +$14.73 | Call |
| $50 | 40.00% | +1.72 points | +$4.30 | Call |
| $100 | 50.00% | -8.28 points | -$16.56 | Fold |
One card or two
Here the cards to come matter. Two cards reach 41.72% and point to a call; one card reaches 23.40% and points to a fold. Which one applies depends on whether the turn brings another bet.
| Cards counted | Chance | Margin over price | Value of the call | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By the river, two cards | 41.72% | +8.3873 points | +$25.16 | Call |
| Next card only | 23.40% | -9.9291 points | -$29.79 | Fold |
Counts close to yours
One out can change the answer, so the table lists the counts on either side of 11. Each out adds roughly 3.24 points against the 33.33% price.
Other bet sizes for this draw
One draw, 12 bets. Each row gives the equity the call needs, the margin over it, and the verdict for 11 outs on the flop.
The largest bet this draw can call on the flop is 2.52 times the pot ($251.96 on a $100 pot). 11 outs call 10 of the 12 bet sizes listed.
| Bet size | Equity needed | Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| quarter-pot | 16.67% | +25.05 points | Call |
| third-pot | 20.00% | +21.72 points | Call |
| two-fifths-pot | 22.22% | +19.50 points | Call |
| half-pot | 25.00% | +16.72 points | Call |
| two-thirds-pot | 28.57% | +13.15 points | Call |
| three-quarter-pot | 30.00% | +11.72 points | Call |
| pot-size, this page | 33.33% | +8.39 points | Call |
| 1.25x-pot | 35.71% | +6.01 points | Call |
| 1.5x-pot | 37.50% | +4.22 points | Call |
| 2x-pot | 40.00% | +1.72 points | Call |
| 3x-pot | 42.86% | -1.14 points | Fold |
| 4x-pot | 44.44% | -2.72 points | Fold |
How this is computed
Here is how 41.72% was found. Deal every pair of the 47 unseen cards: 630 of 1,081 pairs contain no out.
Four assumptions sit behind the verdict: you call the full bet, a hit wins the entire pot, no money goes in after the call, and every one of the 47 unseen cards is equally likely. The price is $100 / $300 = 33.33%. No card is taken out for what an opponent might hold.
Computed from the closed form by the GeorgeLiPoker math library.
Updated
Questions
Are 11 outs on the flop worth a call against a bet of the full pot?
The answer is a call, with a margin of +8.39 points. 11 outs on the flop reach 41.72%; a bet of $100 into $100 needs 33.33%. Win the whole pot on a hit and lose the call on a miss, and the call is worth +$25.16 on average.
What count of outs clears the price of a pot-size bet on the flop?
Look for 9 outs. That is the smallest count whose chance, 34.97%, reaches the 33.33% price; 8 manages 31.45%. You have 11, so you are 2 ahead of the minimum.
How many cards should you count when a pot-size bet arrives on the flop?
The river figure of 41.72% assumes no further betting; the next-card figure of 23.40% assumes you pay again on the turn. Against 33.33%, the first says call and the second says fold.
Related pages
Check your own hands against the numbers
Bring a hand you played and we will work through the price, the chance to hit and the decision together.
Book a session